A study from the University of Colorado Boulder indicates that the Arctic might start experiencing summers almost completely devoid sea ice in just a few years
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Published in the peer-reviewed Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, the research highlights that the Arctic's first ice-free day could happen more than a decade sooner than past predictions, which mainly concentrated on when the region would lack ice for an entire month or longer. This outcome is expected regardless of future greenhouse gas emission levels.
Predicting the First Ice-Free Arctic Summer: Sooner Than Expected
By the 2050s, the Arctic is predicted to endure a whole month of September without sea ice, the period when ice levels are typically at their lowest. By century's end, the period without ice could extend to several months annually, contingent on emissions. Under scenarios of high emissions, the Arctic could face periods without ice, potentially including winter months.
The researchers clarify that an "ice-free" Arctic would still contain ice, but with a surface area of less than 1 million square kilometres (386,000 square miles), a significant drop from the 1980s when the Arctic's minimum sea ice cover was five times larger. In recent Septembers, sea ice has measured about 3.3 million square kilometres.
Professor Alexandra Jahn and her team at CU Boulder's Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research reviewed sea ice literature and climate model data to predict future changes. Their analysis suggests the first day of less than 1 square kilometer of ice could arrive four to 18 years earlier than monthly averages suggest.
Jahn emphasizes the importance of forecasting the first ice-free day to better understand Arctic changes. According to their projections, ice-free conditions could occur from the late 2020s to 2030s on a late August or early September day, under various emissions scenarios.
The Impact of Emissions on Arctic Sea Ice: Paths to Mitigation and Recovery
The study also addresses the consequences of sea ice loss, including threats to Arctic wildlife and coastal communities, and the potential for invasive species. Despite the inevitability of an ice-free Arctic, the frequency of such conditions heavily depends on future emissions. Efforts to reduce emissions could limit the duration of ice-free periods.
Encouragingly, Arctic sea ice can recover quickly with a reduction in atmospheric CO2, offering hope for reversing sea ice melt if global warming can be mitigated.
If you are interested in more details about the study, be sure to check out the paper published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, listed below.
Sources and fruther reading:
Projections of an ice-free Arctic Ocean (Nature Reviews Earth & Environment)
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